Armenia becomes the West's outpost in the South Caucasus as military support grows
By Faiq Mahmudov
Armenia's rapid militarization is posing an increasing threat to the stability and security of the South Caucasus. Despite international efforts to maintain peace, the region is once again teetering on the edge of conflict. Countries like the United States, France, the European Union, and regional powers such as India and Iran are rapidly arming Armenia, fueling its newfound aggression and confidence. This support starkly contradicts the very principles these nations champion on the global stage.
In an interview with News.Az, Alexey Naumov, a political scientist and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) , explained that politicians often don't follow long-term strategies: "Politicians frequently act on opportunities. The West saw Armenia reveal its true colors, showing the real value of its so-called alliance with Russia, and decided to seize this moment. What's the opportunity? The West lacks its own outpost in the South Caucasus. At one point, they hoped Georgia would fill that role, and Mikheil Saakashvili’s strong pro-Western stance supported this. But eventually, Georgians grew disillusioned with that path, and Georgia shifted to a more pragmatic policy centered on its own interests. Meanwhile, Armenia took a different path. Instead of accepting the reality of its defeat in the war and working to improve relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia sought someone to blame—and found that scapegoat in Russia."
Naumov argues that Armenia believes aligning with the West will change everything: "They think it will restore their greatness, revive the idea of a ‘Greater Armenia,’ and put Azerbaijan in a tough spot. The West, eager to establish an outpost in the South Caucasus, and Armenia, desperate for a convenient explanation for its failures, have found common ground. Now, the West is using its weapons and influence to make Armenia its outpost in the region, aiming to secure a foothold and influence South Caucasus policy. Armenia is more than willing to play this role—just a bit of flattery, some financial aid, and a few weapons are all it needs to avoid confronting the real reasons behind its problems."
"If we're talking about building military capabilities, then, of course, the weapons being supplied may eventually be used. They could embolden Armenia’s leadership, making them feel powerful enough to resist or confront others. However, relying on military buildup instead of diplomacy won’t lead to anything good. Armenia might be trying to flex its military muscles, but there’s no future in that approach. Even with Western arms, Armenia can’t challenge Azerbaijan—the economic disparity between the two countries is simply too vast," he noted.
Naumov also acknowledged that after the end of the liberation war, Iran has played a more constructive role in the South Caucasus, recognizing the limits of its influence and the necessity of cooperation with other nations, including Azerbaijan. "As for Azerbaijan's response, I think Azerbaijan skillfully combines military, diplomatic, and political strategies and will certainly not fall for Armenian provocations. It rightly emphasizes the dangers of arming Armenia, pointing out that such actions don't signal a readiness for peace. But while Armenia continues to act as a disruptive player, the other countries of the South Caucasus—Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Russia—can manage just fine without it. Overall, I think the outlook for the South Caucasus is more positive than negative."
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